Who Will Win?

[kjeopardy]

Alright people...

It's getting close to the election as you all know.

Who do you think will win and why? This is not "who do you want to win?". Keep in mind that most of the national polls are skewed heavily in favor of Obama.

In my opinion, Romney will win due to

1) The economy is as bad as it was in 2008 and shows no signs of improvement

2) The novelty of "Change" has completely worn off: more people see it for what it really was: a total (but brilliant) fraud.

3) Despite the bias in the polls, Romney is still only marginally behind Obama

[Darth Crater]

"Despite the bias in the polls"? In what way are the polls biased? If most of them indicate Obama is going to win, that's a reflection of the people, not of the polls. Do you have a source or a better explanation for why you think they don't reflect reality?

I do agree that Obama doesn't have the raw energy of 2008, but I don't think that's going to stop him. Romney has even less energy behind him, and Ryan hasn't helped with that. As for the economy, I'm going to borrow from Clinton's speech (which may well turn out to be the thing that won the election) - you're critcizing Obama for not cleaning up 2008's mess fast enough?

At the moment I have about an 80% confidence in Obama winning. Obama is an incumbent who didn't screw up his first term. Romney, despite most of the campaign now being behind him, hasn't gotten enough momentum to change that. Short of a truly major mistake on either side, debates are the last place I can see Romney turning things around. Even then, I have doubts that there's anything he both can and will do to sway things.

[kjeopardy]

"Despite the bias in the polls"? In what way are the polls biased? If most of them indicate Obama is going to win, that's a reflection of the people, not of the polls. Do you have a source or a better explanation for why you think they don't reflect reality?

I do agree that Obama doesn't have the raw energy of 2008, but I don't think that's going to stop him. Romney has even less energy behind him, and Ryan hasn't helped with that. As for the economy, I'm going to borrow from Clinton's speech (which may well turn out to be the thing that won the election) - you're critcizing Obama for not cleaning up 2008's mess fast enough?

At the moment I have about an 80% confidence in Obama winning. Obama is an incumbent who didn't screw up his first term. Romney, despite most of the campaign now being behind him, hasn't gotten enough momentum to change that. Short of a truly major mistake on either side, debates are the last place I can see Romney turning things around. Even then, I have doubts that there's anything he both can and will do to sway things.

It's very easy to skew a poll: sample people whose votes you like.

Since most the News Networks are in Obama's pocket and ridiculously liberal, they sample people who they expect will vote for Obama in order to create this false sense of "Obama momentum."

[WD-40]

I don't believe the polls much. They're just small samplings. Anyway, the polls in 1979 had Carter way ahead of Reagan. We know how that race turned out.

[kjeopardy]

I don't believe the polls much. They're just small samplings. Anyway, the polls in 1979 had Carter way ahead of Reagan. We know how that race turned out.

Not as steep as '84

[Darth Crater]

It's very easy to skew a poll: sample people whose votes you like.

Since most the News Networks are in Obama's pocket and ridiculously liberal, they sample people who they expect will vote for Obama in order to create this false sense of "Obama momentum."

It's even easier to not skew a poll - sample people at absolute random. Your interpretation requires countless independent parties (including Gallup and Fox) to conspire to over-sample Obama voters. Mine simply requires a majority to be Obama voters, as the previous election demonstrated to be possible. Which of these do you believe is a simpler explanation?

I suspect that the problem isn't that most networks are "ridiculously liberal", but that the Republican party line has gone so far to the right that absolutely everyone else has to be considered "ridiculously liberal" by their standards.

[kjeopardy]

It's very well known that the media supports Obama and not Romney. If you don't believe me, check the poll compositions for yourself.

In any event, let's get off the topic of poll accuracy...

You've got your opinion, I've got mine.

[Darth Crater]

It's "very well known" that every media source, several independent polling organizations with no stake in anything, and FOX all support Obama?

I'd like to know where you're seeing these "poll compositions" - could you link me to them or something if you want me to actually find them?

[Outrider]

I don't believe the polls much. They're just small samplings. Anyway, the polls in 1979 had Carter way ahead of Reagan. We know how that race turned out.

Not as steep as '84

Where are you guys getting your poll results of past presidential elections from? From what I've found and seen on Gallup, the margin of error of these past polls compared to the actual election results are quite minimal and are somewhat accurate predictors. Keep in mind that electoral votes determine who the president is, and the polls are representative of the popular vote.

[kjeopardy]